February 2026 Volume 8

INDUSTRY NEWS

Despite Utilization Gains in 2025, Forgers Split on Revenue Expectations All manufacturing revenue expectations are higher than forgers with 29% expecting increases of 5% or more, 33% expecting flat revenue year over year from 2024 to 2025. In contrast, forgers are slightly less optimistic with only 26% expecting an increase of more than 5% and 32% expecting flat revenue growth. The interesting piece is the breakout of that revenue growth or decline. Forgers are on the two extremes with 26% expecting a decrease of 10% or more and 21% expect an increase of 10% or more. With those numbers, we looked at how forgers expected EBIT year over year to change.

Another impact Wipfli saw was the increase in quoting activity coming from market testing. In several instances, we spoke with manufacturers about increased RFQs, with a smaller percentage being won or awarded at all. In conversations with OEMs and Tier 1s, the market testing was to determine the price and lead time difference if they were to switch from a Chinese supplier (or another Low Cost Country supplier) to a supplier in North America. The changing pricing dynamics are affecting both forecasting for the OEMs as well as manufacturers trying to strategically plan for 2026 and beyond. Capacity Utilization Up for Forgers Wipfli looks at capacity utilization based on a 24-hour, 5-day shift structure to understand total potential capacity that could be filled by a manufacturer. When we first started doing capacity studies for FIA in Q3 of 2024, forgers had a utilization of 51% compared to production shops at 59%. Since then, forgers have increased their utilization to 59% in Q3 of 2025, compared to production shops at 56% in the same quarter. While utilization fluctuated for forgers during 2025, the average utilization for 2025, 59%, was higher than 2024-year end, and higher than that of production shops, averaging at 56% for 2025. Wipfli’s Q1 2026 survey launches in late January and will dig into how manufacturers did at the end of 2025, and what expectations for 2026 will look like.

58% of forgers expected a growth in EBIT from 2024 to 2025, which begs the question, what internal efficiencies are occurring to have forgers so split on revenue changes, but so optimistic on EBIT growth. Time to Focus on the Forecast The best time to act was yesterday, and the second best is today. There is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace, from market testing to policy changes, new items outside of your control are coming rapidly. Too often manufacturers are in this wait and see mindset, and by the time steps are taken to mitigate revenue decreases or lost work, it is too late. Looking forward, forgers need to focus on the controllables within their business. Data is going to become essential for all manufacturers to succeed, focusing on how utilization, revenue, and quoting activity fluctuates will help you forecast for next year. Operational efficiencies and sales strategies will help with firming up forecasts and scenario

FIA MAGAZINE | FEBRUARY 2026 55