May 2024 Volume 6

INDUSTRY NEWS

Economic Updates & The Labor Market By Alex Chausovsky

US Real (Inflation Adjusted) GDP Trillions of Chained 2017 Dollars - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

$24

Record High!

$22

$20

$18

$16

$14

$12

Quarterly Value ($T)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis| Bundy Group

In March, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that its 'Third and Final Estimate' for Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching a record high of $22.7 trillion (chart 1) and growing by 3.4% over the previous quarter. On a cyclical basis, which involves comparing 4Q23 to 4Q22 to calculate the growth rate, Real GDP finished last year up 3.1% (chart 2).

It’s important to consider economic and company data both at face value and in terms of growth rates, as the two perspectives tell a more complete story. This is also the way that business leaders in the forging industry typically assess the performance of their businesses. What’s evident in the above charts, which both measure the same macroeconomic activity in different ways, is that despite all the gloomy forecasts calling for recession in 2023, the U.S. economy

US Real (Inflation Adjusted) GDP Quarter-over-Quarter (4Q23 vs 4Q22) Growth

15

Growth accelerated over the course of 2023

10

5

3.1%

0

-5

-10

Vs. 1yr ago

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis| Bundy Group

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2024 75