November 2019 Volume 1

INDUSTRY NEWS & CALENDAR

FIA Marketing Workshop 2019 Recap

On Sept. 18-19, FIA held its Marketing Workshop for the first time since 2016, hosted by the AMADA SolutionCenter in Schaumburg, Ill. (northwestern suburb of Chicago). More than 50 attendees were impressed by Amada’s state of the art training center and were able to tour its showroom with the latest technology in automation, laser cutting, press brakes, punching, robotic bending and much more. Attendees received industry updates from world-class speakers on many topics: automotive, aerospace, heavy construction, agriculture, mining, the economy and the energy sector. FIAO&S SURVEY During lunch on the first day, The Association for Manufacturing Technology (AMT), gave an update on FIA’s popular Orders & Shipments Survey. Contact Delaney Schield if you would you like to participate (Dschield@amtonline.org or 703-827-5240). SALES &MARKETING James Soto, CEO of Industrial Strength Marketing, guided the audience through an interactive survey on sales and marketing techniques. Attendees received live feedback on how their companies ranked with their sales and marketing efforts and where they could improve, based on the individual’s responses. AUTOMOTIVE Center for Automotive Research (CAR) gave a global view of lightweight vehicles, electrification and forecasts in automotive trends—both in production and employment. U.S. light vehicle monthly sales and SAAR are on the rise, with the CUV leading with 21.5 percent of U.S. sales. For North American automaker investment by region, Canada came in at 7 percent, Mexico at 19 percent and the U.S. with 74 percent. Gas prices are down, which shows a pronounced move toward

light trucks, enabled by relatively low fuel prices. U.S. automotive employment growth is slowing. In electrification, the market share segment breakdown shows the CUV leading with 38.9 percent. A case study was shared showing the opportunities and challenges with electrifying the great American pickup. One of the challenges is that pickups require a large and more costly batteries. Finally, CAR forecasts are showing that U.S. light vehicle sales for the next five years will dip in 2021 then will be back up by 2025. Production forecasts are following the same trend. AEROSPACE Weber Metals gave an aerospace industry overview from a forging perspective, sharing the two key global drivers of the industry are oil prices and air passenger volume. When oil prices are high, it puts pressure on aircraft OEMs for improvements in fuel burns. Air passenger volume trends show steady growth since 2014. The market is strong and shows growth through challenging times. Air travel remains resilient through financial and geopolitical challenges. There is continued 20-plus years’ growth forecasted, with 4.6 percent in world traffic growth. Commercial aircraft production is forecasted for an estimated 50,000 fleet size in 2038. The largest growth market continues to be the Asia-Pacific region. The strength of the commercial sector has put pressure on available forging capacity for defense work. Aerospace forging trends show open-die forgings are primarily used in the aircraft development phase, with the transition from open-die to closed-die occurring during aircraft serial production. Additive and forging-plus-additive are the bleeding edge. Procurement trends and behaviors show limited forging capacity and know-how. Weber Metals also shared engine sourcing trends from 1960-2020 and aerospace raw material usage by weight and value. Weber reports four aerospace forging barriers to entry: 1. Certification 2. Know-how (manufacturing, engineering, M&P) 3. OEM/Tier 1 approvals 4. Capital AGRICULTURE / MINING Agriculture. In the U.S., agriculture has been going through an unusually rough patch. That is saying something, given the almost constant travails of the farm community. This year, the major inhibitors have been the weather and trade wars. The spring floods yielded to summer floods and now more rain during peak harvest time. The USDA is predicting yet another down year for all major crops. The Chinese have responded to U.S. tariffs with attacks of their own, and most of these have been aimed at the farm exports the U.S. sends. The soybean tariffs have all but cut off this market,

Paul Spitz of Unit Forging and Scott Bowerman of Amada America Inc.

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