November 2022 Volume 4

OPERATIONS & MANAGEMENT

Figure 2Industrial production, forging and stamping industry Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED database)

forging and stamping declined an average 20% over the duration of each. IP, a measure of industrial output, declined steeply but seemed to climb out of those steep declines rapidly. One might conclude that a recession may induce a 20% decline in forging and stamping IP which loosely corresponds to a 35% decline in orders for forged products as measured by the O&S survey. Recession dating going back to 1945 indicates the average recession endures for only 10 months. So, if the Fed can’t orchestrate its desired soft landing, the forging market might experience several months of negative growth followed by a very swift recovery.

Ian Stringer VP – Data Strategy AMT-The Association for Manufacturing Technology Phone: 703-827-5209 Email: IStringer@amtonline.org

FIA MAGAZINE | NOVEMBER 2022 67