November 2023 Volume 5

INDUSTRY NEWS

Figure 2: Unemployment rates January 2007 - September 2023

The Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation come at the cost of a slowing economy, which brings about increased unemployment rates. Such a rise in unemployment can lead to a potential decline in consumer spending, which, in turn, could reduce the demand for forgings. Therefore, unemployment is a key indicator to monitor when assessing recession risks. A recent quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal indicated that business and academic economists have lowered the anticipated risk

of a recession within the next year. The collective forecast shifted from 54% in July to a more optimistic 48%, marking the first occurrence below 50% since mid-last year. While this adjustment signals a brighter economic outlook, striking a balance between a tight monetary policy to battle inflation while maintaining an economy resilient enough to ensure a soft landing presents a significant challenge.

Figure 3: Personal Consumption Expenditures (Consumer Spending) January 2007 – September 2023.

Ian Stringer VP – Data Strategy AMT-The Association for Manufacturing Technology Phone: 703-827-5209 Email: IStringer@amtonline.org

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