November 2024 Volume 6

MATERIALS

Forecasts: Uninspiring Sources contacted for this article forecast only 2-5% growth in SBQ demand next year, depending on how the market and economy react to the outcome of the election. Looking ahead to the major bar markets next year, one distributor expects more of the same. “We are wishing for better news than we see on the horizon,” he said. “We feel like we’ve hit the bottom, so there’s only upside ahead. How long that will take is anybody’s guess,” added one producer. Noting that SBQ “is probably near a trough in terms of demand momentum,” Gibbs predicted that any changes in supply and demand in 2025 will likely be modest. “There really aren’t a lot of big growth drivers for SBQ outside the ebbs and flows of the economy.”

Gibbs said. Controversy over the bid from Japan’s Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel’s assets is founded on similar national security

concerns, he added. Imports: Rising

Making the competitive environment in the bar market even more intense, SBQ imports are on the increase. Government data shows imports captured 14% of the market in 2022, 15% in 2023 and were on track in the first half of this year for a 17% market share. Fears of short supplies due to Republic’s decision to shutter its hot melt capacity in the U.S. last year appear to have been overblown. Republic is still positioned to supply the U.S. market, but from its mill in Mexico. Capacity in the U.S. is adequate to handle the normal fluctuations in the SBQ market, at least so far, sources agreed. But if North American auto builds surge back above 18 million vehicles in the near future, supplies could tighten considerably. Election: Hindering

Tim Triplett has covered the metals markets for nearly 30 years as a former editor at Metal Center News and Steel Market Update. Tim will be a periodic contributor to FIA Magazine. He can be reached at timtriplett0608@gmail.com.

Some of the market’s malaise is no doubt related to the election. “Everyone is in a holding pattern. No one is making any big deci sions until we get past this vote,” said one mill executive. “Election years are typically subdued due to a wall of anxiety. No matter who wins, there is always a relief rally after the vote. Buying patterns pick up in the first quarter regardless of true underlying demand. I expect that will be the case this time,” said Gibbs at KeyBanc.

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