August 2019 Volume 1

WASHINGTON UPDATE

this trade war continue without having a major economic impact where average Americans began to feel the effect of these tariffs in their personal finances? With politics always top of mind, it would not be surprising if the president homes in on a deal to lift tariffs – so long as he gets what he considers to be favorable concessions – around 2Q of next year right as the presidential race shifts into high gear. DEBATES, THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN & ITS EFFECTONCONGRESSIONAL AGENDA

be sure that Speaker Pelosi would not risk her majority by making Sisyphean, potentially politically damaging legislative attempts that would do nothing except come off as pure messaging exercises. To put it another way, the Democratic presidential primary race will drive voter enthusiasm, but it will not determine the Democratic congressional agenda for the remainder of the 116th Congress. OTHER LEGISLATIVE ITEMS OF NOTE Export-Import Bank The bank’s authorization runs out on September 30th. If this happens the bank would be unable to help U.S. companies cut deals with other countries to buy high priced items like airplanes, agricultural equipment and the like. This is a huge deal for the forging industry and should be watched closely. For decades the Export-Import bank operated without controversy. It has only been in the last five years that certain members of Congress have given to calling the bank’s mission “corporate welfare” and have thrown wrenches in its ability to operate. Infrastructure Though the congress began in January with bipartisan hope on a major infrastructure package, it is fair to assess at this point that that hope has faded. Agreement still exists that we should do something, but there is substantial disagreement on how to pay for what is estimated to be a $1-2 trillion package. With the difficulties that exist on agreement to a base federal budget as mentioned above, it is nearly impossible to see any major infrastructure package getting across the finish line this fall. S. 1955, the Made in America Act Finally, on a more positive note, we are proud to share the news that FIA has enthusiastically endorsed Senator Tammy Baldwin’s (D WI) Made in America Act. If signed into law, the bill would identify federal programs that fund infrastructure projects not currently subject to Buy America standards. It alsowould ensure that materials used in these federal programs, including steel, iron and aluminum, are domestically produced. Given that approximately 45,000 people from coast to coast are employed by the forging industry in the United States, this legislation would go a long way in supporting our industry.

Since going to print, there have been two rounds of Democratic presidential candidate debates. The lesson learned thus far is that no candidate has been rewarded for moderation. Though former Vice President Joe Biden maintains a lead, it is most viewed by political scientists as a product of long-time name ID and not for his moderate stances on most issues. Other moderate candidates – Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, Governor Steve Bullock of Montana and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota among others – have not seen a substantial increase in their support, suggesting that Democratic primary voters are looking for their candidates of choice to be further of center-left. The candidates so far who have benefited the most from this posture include Senate Kamala Harris of California and Senator ElizabethWarren of Massachusetts. This, however, does not allow us to infer that the Democratic presidential primary race will swing Democratic congressional priorities too far to the left. They can’t. There are too many Democrats who won in 2018 in districts that President Trump won in 2016 who would be compromised should the Democratic agenda make a sudden shift to anything considered radical. Democrats currently make up 235 members of the House of Representatives – if they lost 18 seats, they lose the majority. Of the 63 new Democrats who came toCongress following the 2018 election, 40 are considered moderate members who serve in swing districts. With Republicans comfortably controlling the Senate and the president happy to use his veto if a bill considered too far left was even to get to his desk (a highly unlikely scenario given the make-up of the Senate), you can

Steve Haro is Principal at Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas and can be reached at sharo@mc-dc.com

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