August 2019 Volume 1

ECONOMIC UPDATE

The third reason for the lack of response has been the quick reaction from competitive nations eager to chew into that Chinese market share. Vietnam has seen a 60% increase in exports to the US and India has seen a similar ramp up. Many assumed that there would be a reaction from China’s competitors but few assumed it would be this swift. The tariffs that have gone into effect thus far have been targeted at the industrial community and replacing Chinese production has been relatively simple. If the tariffs on consumer goods are imposed it may be harder for the rival nations to react but they will certainly try. The bottom line is that trade wars and tariffs remain a threat but the uneven execution of the policy combined with the development of alternatives has limited the impact for the moment. That could change quickly should these threats actually become reality and nobody really knows what would trigger this.

Merkel to weaken the Parliament as they will tie themselves in knots trying to work with her. The power of the European Parliament remains weak but it has become more influential over the last few years as the radical groups have become engaged. This has limited the activity of the European Commission and that annoys Macron. My Yard has Super Powers As a tender youth I was a devotee of comic books as were all my friends and we always managed to find the weird and obscure along with the more traditional fare offered up by the likes of Superman and Spiderman and others. One such obscure hero was one that could command and control plants. Not very tough you say? Au contraire! He could tie villains up with vines, could make forests appear in front of an advancing army and so on. I amnow convinced that this hero took control of my yard. I spent most of the weekend whacking and hacking at runaway vegetation. Trees whose branches were assaulting the roof and gutters, bushes that were climbing to the second-floor windows, vines that were engulfing all in their path, weeds that regrew even as I pulled them. The only things not going ballistic were those plants we deliberately put in the ground. I swear that if ever we had the temerity to vacation during growing season, we would come back to find our home completely consumed by the greenery. It reminds me of the cartoon from Far Side with the guy standing on his porch engulfed by a vine that was rocketing around the house as his wife yelled – “look out – here it comes again”. Despite this we plant more and more and more. This year it was the installation of Sugartina Summersweet – twenty of them. They took the place of some Nine-Bark Diablos and Sumac that did not fare too well. So, the process involved cutting and digging out the old so that the new could come in. The joys of being the assistant to the resident Master Gardener or as I like to think of myself – The Sorcerer’s Apprentice.

Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., is FIA’s Economist and co-founder of Armada Corporate Intelligence. You can write to Chris at info@forging,org. Learn more about Armada at www.armadaci.com

Very Controversial Choice as European Commission President The choice of Ursula von der Leyen was a shock from the start as many within the European Parliament expected the choice would be from among their ranks and would be based on who had done the best in the elections. This alternative was rejected by the most powerful leaders in Europe and they put their own candidate in place. It was more than a little unusual to see von der Leyen getting support from the likes of Emmanuel Macron given that she has a reputation as a conservative and a populist. In the end her narrow victory came due to the support of those populists and right wing groups. She won almost no support from members of the parliament and that will make it hard for her to accomplish much. Her opponents assert that she will be far too dependent on these big country leaders and those that are pursuing an anti-EU position. Analysis: Analysts are struggling to figure out where she came from as her name was nowhere in the conversation until the last moment. It is thought by some that this was a deliberate move by Macron and

FIA MAGAZINE | August 2019 25