May 2026 Volume 8

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

RATE READINESS AT RISK The Global Shortage of Large Hydraulic

Forging Presses By Mesh Feigenbaum

T he aerospace industry is accelerating toward the highest single-aisle production rates in history. Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC are all pushing toward monthly outputs that would have been unthinkable a decade ago - 170 aircraft per month or more – 60% higher than the previous high. Engines, structures, landing gear, and critical titanium components must all scale with these ambitions. Yet beneath this surge lies the quiet constraint that people are just now starting to talk about: the world is running out of large hydraulic closed-die forging press capacity. For this analysis, “large hydraulic forging press” refers to presses of 200 meganewtons (MN) and above - roughly 20,000 metric tons and up. These presses are the backbone of commercial single-aisle and twin-aisle structural, engine, and landing gear forgings, as well as critical components for military aircraft. They produce: This is not a theoretical concern. It is a physical, metallurgical, geopolitical, and economic bottleneck - one that will define the aerospace production landscape for the next few decades. And the stakes are enormous. Boeing remains one of the most economically consequential manufacturers in the United States and supports hundreds of thousands of American jobs across its supply chain. A forging capacity shortage inherently limits commercial aerospace production rates - and therefore Boeing’s sales, revenue, and economic contribution. In a constrained capacity environment, normal market forces increase cost pressure and shift negotiating leverage as suppliers allocate limited forging slots to the highest value and most strategically aligned programs. These dynamics apply globally as well, affecting Airbus and COMAC as they pursue their own rate ambitions. From a national security perspective, the implications are even more serious. The U.S. defense industrial base depends on domestic and friendly nation forging suppliers. Russia and China are not options. A shortage of large press capacity directly threatens the timely delivery of critical military hardware, including programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Air Force’s F-47 and B-21, as well as the Navy’s F/A-XX. • Bulkheads and frames • Wingbox components • Slat tracks • Pylon structures • Landing gear beams, arms, and links • Engine hubs, shafts, and discs

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