May 2026 Volume 8

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE FORGING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION | FORGING.ORG | MAY 2026

SEEING THE HEAT WHY ROBOTS, MACHINE VISION, SMARTER CONTROLS, AND AI ARE GAINING GROUND IN ONE OF MANUFACTURING’S TOUGHEST ENVIRONMENTS PAGE 18

STARTING SMART WITH AUTOMATION PAGE 38 TEACHING ROBOTS PAGE 42

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FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026

PRESIDENT'S NOTE

PRESIDENT'S NOTE

T he forging industry often straddles take weeks or longer to deliver. These, and other competing forces give rise to another – innovation. In this edition, we explore how these forces are reshaping the forging industry two competing forces: The demand for speed and the reality that forgings can

Editorial Staff

PUBLISHER & EDITOR Angela Gibian Deputy Chief Executive | Forging Industry Association angela@forging.org ASSOCIATE EDITOR Amanda Dureiko Executive Director (FIERF) | Forging Industry Association amanda@forging.org DESIGN Lorean Crowder Sr. Graphic Design & Publication Specialist | Forging Industry Association lorean@forging.org CHAIRPERSON Paul A. Spitz Vice President - Sales & Marketing | Unit Drop Forge Co. Inc. VICE CHAIRPERSON Jeff Krueger Exec. Dir. of Corp. Sales | Scot Forge Co. Robert R. Bolin President | GLAMA USA Inc. Mark Derry VP Operations | Portland Forge Rick Egbert VP & CFO | Carbo Forge, Inc. Colby Hamilton President | McInnes Rolled Rings Bret Halley COO | Valley Forge & Bolt Mfg. Co. James D. Kane VP of Commercial Sales | Ellwood Quality Steels Co. Louis Philippe Lapierre COO | Finkl Steel Frank Sikon Director of Procurement Operations | Howmet Aerospace Luke Spinelli Executive VP - COO | Aluminum Precision Products, Inc. Board of Directors

to satisfy the needs of customers, improve company’s bottom lines, and reducing health and safety risks through AI, automation, and modern material handling. In this edition, we explore what that looks like in practice. • Our cover story examines modern material handling and the growing role of vision and AI in forging operations on page 18. • Strategies for maintaining automated handling equipment in forging environments are found on page 26. • We look at the principles of safety by design in automated environments on page 28. • Practical guidance for forgers just beginning their automation journey is found on page 38. You’ll also notice two new additions to the Magazine. We’re launching a dedicated Safety Section [pg. 28] to give this critical topic the sustained attention it deserves. And our new Faces of Forging [pg. 67] feature puts a spotlight on the people behind the products our members make. Although it can seem AI is all anyone wants to talk about, forging is and will be a people driven industry. You can’t “AI-away” these jobs! As you read through this edition, I hope you see your own operations and your own teams reflected in these stories. The world is demanding more, and our members are answering the call to lead. Best Regards,

Mark Ames, AAiP President and CEO Forging Industry Association

FIA Magazine (ISSN 2643-1254 (print) and ISSN 2643-1262 (online)) is published 4 times annually, May, August, November and February by the Forging Industry Association, 6363 Oak Tree Blvd., Independence, Ohio 44131. Telephone: (216) 781-6260. Only (1) copy of the print version distributed at no charge only to members of the Forging Industry Association. Digital version distributed at no charge to qualified individuals. Subscription requests available at www. forging.org. Printed in the U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid in Independence, OH and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Forging Industry Association, 6363 Oak Tree Blvd., Independence, Ohio 44131. Copyright © 2026 by the Forging Industry Association in both printed and electronic formats. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication may not be reproduced in whole or part without the consent of the publisher. The publisher is not responsible for product claims and representations or for any statement made or opinion expressed herein. Data and information presented by the authors of specific articles are for informational purposes only and are not intended for use without independent, substantiating investigation on the part of potential users.

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 3

CONTENTS

MAY 2026 | VOLUME 8

p. 38

p.42

p. 18

PRESIDENT'S NOTE 3 President's Note WASHINGTON UPDATE 6 "Here to Help" ENERGY 8 Is it Time for a Longer-Term Energy Contract? 10 Don't Blame AI for Rising Electric Bills EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY 12 Rate Readiness at Risk 18 Seeing the Heat 22 The Critical Role of Forgings in the Defense Industry 24 Meeting Aerospace Manufacturing Demands with Advanced Forging Technology

MAINTENANCE 26 Maintaining Plant Automation Systems Under Forging Conditions SAFETY 28 Automation is Rewriting the Safety Playbook in Forging 32 FIA Announces 2025 Safety Award Winners AUTOMATION 34 Fundamentals of Lubricant Spray Atomization in Closed-Die Metal Forging 38 Starting Smart with Automation 40 Rethinking Automation in a Job Shop 42 Teaching Robots MATERIALS 45 Nickel Alloy Forgings – Commercial and Technical Landscape OPERATIONS & MANAGEMENT 52 ICE Interaction Guidance 54 2026 Forging Performance Looking Up 56 When is it Time to Replace Computer Hardware? 58 Doing Business with the Government

INDUSTRY NEWS 61 NUTEC Acquires ETS Schaefer 61 Rodrigo González Appointed President of NUTEC Bickley 62 Expanded FIA Theory & Applications of Forging and Die Design Course Returns in 2026 63 FIA Lifetime Achievement Award 64 FIA Announces Addition of Two New Directors 65 FIA and Forging Foundation Announce New Board Leadership and Class of 2029 67 Faces of Forging 68 Welcome New Members 70 FIA Upcoming Events FOUNDATION NEWS 72 From Research to Industry 74 Donor Spotlight: Auction Donors FORGING RESEARCH 76 Improving Forging Die Life through Advanced Alloy Coatings MEMBERS SPEAK 80 Stronger Together AD INDEX 83 May Advertiser Index

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE FORGING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION | FORGING.ORG | MAY 2026

SEEING THE HEAT WHY ROBOTS, MACHINE VISION, SMARTER CONTROLS, AND AI ARE GAINING GROUND IN ONE OF MANUFACTURING’S TOUGHEST ENVIRONMENTS PAGE 18

STARTING SMART WITH AUTOMATION PAGE 38 TEACHING ROBOTS PAGE 42

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FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026

WASHINGTON UPDATE

"HERE TO HELP" This Time OSHA May Mean It By Omar S. Nashashibi

I n August 1986, President Reagan said that “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.’” President Trump’s administration is looking to turn that phrase on its head, and show manufacturers that OSHA can be a partner, and not just an enforcer. As a registered lobbyist in Washington, D.C. for over twenty-five years, I have seen how each administration puts its mark on safety in the workplace and this administration is moving swiftly. From President George W. Bush’s OSHA Voluntary Protection Programs (VPP) expansion to President Joe Biden’s pledge to hire 1,000 OSHA enforcement officers, my meetings had one constant: that the government was there to “help.” In this second Trump administration, OSHA is moving on multiple fronts with a focus on employer outreach and the launch of its Safety Champions Program. The program aims to prevent workplace injuries, illnesses, and fatalities by incorporating the seven core elements of OSHA’s Recommended Practices for Safety and Health Programs. It is structured in three self-guided steps – Introductory, Intermediate, and Advanced – allowing participants to progress at their own pace. Employers may request a Special Government Employee (SGE) to assess their program and progress at any stage, and as is always the case, must address any hazards identified in the workplace. OSHA will assign a Safety Champions SGE to conduct a review when a participant believes they have completed all actions in a Step. The SGE may recommend that participant for Step completion to the SCP Coordinator, or the SGE may identify areas where further progress is needed. Upon successful completion of the Advanced Step, participating employers will have a safety and health program that integrates all seven core elements and reflects a proactive approach to safety and health. Unlike OSHA’s Voluntary Protection Programs, which formally recognize top-performing worksites that meet rigorous, fully implemented safety and health standards, the Safety Champions Program is a step-based, self-guided framework. The intention is to “meet employers where they are,” and assist them with building capabilities over time rather than immediate certification-level requirements. Employers can learn more about the program at https://www.osha.gov/safety-champions. Among the top safety priorities dating to the Biden administration is addressing indoor and outdoor workplace heat exposure. On April 10, 2026, OSHA announced an update to its National Emphasis Program (NEP) on indoor and outdoor heat-related hazards, signaling a continued expansion of targeted enforcement in high-risk industries. The revised program directs OSHA to prioritize inspections and outreach in sectors where workers face the greatest exposure to heat stress. The updated NEP lasts for three years and replaces previous instructional guidance issued in April 2022 and extended last year by the Trump administration for twelve months.

The NEP incorporates 2022–2025 injury and illness data to better focus inspections, maintains the use of programmed (targeted) and unprogrammed (complaint or incident-driven) inspections, and reinforces expanded inquiry during any inspection where heat may be a factor – even if heat is not the original reason for the visit. This NEP is separate from the Biden-era proposed indoor and outdoor heat rule and does not have the same broad scope as a full new regulation; it acts more as a guide for OSHA inspectors to emphasize heat in their workplace visits. The FIA filed formal comments in 2024 raising concerns about the Biden proposal to mandate employee breaks every two hours, adjust shift schedules, and impose a one-size-fits-all approach to every workplace from the forge shop to the golf course to the local restaurant. In my meetings here in Washington, D.C. with government officials and industry stakeholders, there is an increasing interest in seeing the current Trump administration release a final indoor and outdoor heat workplace rule that can accommodate the broad range of employers in the U.S. While timing for a heat rule is unclear, many manufacturers are concerned that absent a rule under the current administration, a future White House may direct OSHA to implement the Biden rule, which is unworkable for many industries. Also coming up in my recent discussions is OSHA’s possible rulemaking on lock-out/tag-out. OSHA’s current lock-out/tag-out rulemaking did not begin with the Biden administration; it traces back to a 2019 Request for Information issued under President Trump. The impetus for the Trump administration to explore revising the rule is whether the 1989 standard accurately reflects today’s manufacturing workplace. At the time, policymakers wrote the rule for a manufacturing environment dominated by mechanical equipment with clearly identifiable energy sources that required an operator to “lock-out”. OSHA has engaged the stakeholder community to identify whether the existing lock-out/tag-out standard still applies to a modern manufacturing environment where robotics and CNC equipment are more prevalent. It did not contemplate today’s reality of servo-driven systems, PLC-controlled equipment, robotics, and interconnected production lines, where energy may be controlled through software, interlocks, or control circuits. The Trump administration initially identified December 2025 as the timing to release a proposed rule, though it faced delays due to the government shutdown. Some sources indicate we may see movement this summer on this long-simmering issue that remains top-of-mind for many manufacturers. From one administration to the next, OSHA’s approach to employers can switch from enforcement to support. Not knowing which government manufacturers will face next can lend a sense of urgency to create a regulatory environment that achieves its goal of a safe workplace without creating unworkable requirements on employers. This brings us to a question about President Reagan’s quote from forty years ago: is the government really here to help? Forging

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FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026

WASHINGTON UPDATE

manufacturers should not wait for that OSHA inspector to come knocking to find out. Use the resources offered by the Forging Industry Association, the support offered by, yes, the government, and continue providing employees a safe and productive work environment. Contact the FIA today to learn more about how your association can help, including the EHS Hero program and other membership benefits.

Omar S. Nashashibi is the Founder of Inside Beltway, a nonpartisan lobbying and strategic consulting firm in Washington, D.C. Having worked in the nation’s capital for over twenty-five years, Mr. Nashashibi provides strategic consulting services to companies while also lobbying the White House and Congress on behalf of manufacturing, associations, defense firms, nonprofits, and other sectors. He works with policymakers on trade, taxes, environmental and workplace regulations, supply chains, job training and identifying grants and funding to support projects. Having started his career

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in Washington D.C. in 1996, Mr. Nashashibi worked for the Office of Management and Budget, a branch of the White House, a large multi-state law firm, and founded a previous lobbying firm in 2005. He graduated from the George Washington University in Washington, D.C., where he studied Political Science and International Affairs. He is based in Washington, D.C., representing the Forging Industry Association. He can be reached at omar@ insidebeltway.com.

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FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 7

ENERGY

IS IT TIME FOR A LONGER-TERM ENERGY CONTRACT? By Nancy Gardner

W ith energy markets in a constant state of flux, there has been a notable shift in recent purchasing decisions: many industrial, commercial, and public sector buyers are opting for longer contract terms. Historically, and across business sectors, the median electricity or natural gas contract term has been 26 months. So far this year, our client base has been opting for longer terms – an average of 33 months. This includes businesses that are already under contract into late 2026 or 2027 – they are seeing more value in extending contract terms well into the 2030s. Why Is this Happening? In 2024, the natural gas market was in a state of contango for most of the year, as near-term prices traded at a discount to longer terms:

Fast forward to today, and there is virtually no difference between short-term and long-term pricing:

The orange line for 36-months and the green line for 60-months are on top of each other – there is virtually no difference. Here is a look at the forward NYMEX natural gas strips on April 10th, 2026: Calendar Year 2027 $3.591 per MMBtu YOY Change Calendar Year 2028 $3.697 +3% Calendar Year 2029 $3.624 -2% Calendar Year 2030 $3.610 -<1% Calendar Year 2031 $3.600 -<1% Calendar Year 2032 $3.557 -1% A common question from energy buyers is “if the forward curve is flat (and below $3.70 per MMBtu), why should we expect prices to rise in the future?” The answer is simple: “You shouldn’t, but that flat forward curve does present a great buying opportunity.” As an energy advisor, Transparent Energy is structure- and term agnostic — our role is to present the full range of options with supporting market data so you can make an informed, confident decision. Every transaction is one part of a long-term advisory relationship focused on managing your total energy cost and risk. What Signals Are the Energy Markets Sending? Generally, conditions for energy prices in the U.S. remain favorable. So far, we’ve remained largely insulated from rising global energy prices associated with the ongoing conflict in Iran. Domestic natural gas production continues to push output higher. The EIA forecasts gas production to increase from 107 Bcf per day in 2025 to between 133 Bcf/d to 151 Bcf/d by 2050. The 18 Bcf per day gap in forecast outcomes leaves a lot of uncertainty around

That dynamic flipped in 2025 when prices slipped into backwardation. Prompt month terms were elevated compared to future prices:

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FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026

ENERGY

whether supply will be able to keep pace with demand, especially considering midstream supply constraints and the bullish expectations for LNG export growth. In its 2026 Annual Energy Outlook the EIA puts future Henry Hub prices somewhere between $2.50 and $13.90 per MMBtu:

As we witnessed this past winter, a brief shot of extremely cold temperatures led to a doubling of gas prices in just two weeks. Weather is just one of many moving pieces in the total energy cost equation. Other factors (geopolitical, regulatory, data centers, environmental, etc.) are constantly appearing to further drive price volatility. Partial Hedges Allow for Blended Rates The biggest risk with a fixed-price energy contract is the opportunity cost. The only thing worse than a missed buying opportunity is locking in right before the market crashes. So why not mitigate that risk? The choice exists to fix a percentage of future exposure for a medium-to-long term. If prices move lower, then another buying opportunity arises – lock in another percentage. If prices move higher, the partial protection will have helped reduce the impact, and your business will be well positioned to move quickly with a vetted supplier. Under current market conditions, the opportunity to secure long term budget stability is as favorable as it has been in years. Market conditions shift quickly — this window will not remain open. If you are interested in capitalizing on this time-sensitive buying opportunity and/or are looking

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, April 2026. While the long-term price downside (blue line) is limited to ~$1.00 per MMBtu, the potential upside (gold line) is more than $10 per MMBtu. This asymmetric risk profile is a primary driver behind the growing preference among experienced energy buyers for longer-term fixed contracts.

for help understanding the energy markets and executing an energy-procurement strategy that limits your cost and risk, contact Transparent Energy at ngardner@transparentedge.com.

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 9

ENERGY

DON'T BLAME AI FOR RISING ELECTRIC BILLS By Bernard L. Weinstein

I n recent years, U.S. electricity demand has experienced a significant surge, driven by colder winters, hotter summers, as well as the growth of data centers, artificial intelligence, and other power-hungry industries. Continued rapid demand growth is projected for at least the next decade. As a consequence, the cost of power has been escalating rapidly for most American households. Indeed residential electricity bills have outstripped the overall consumer price index (CPI) for the past two years. In 2025 alone, average residential bills jumped by 12%. Not surprisingly, higher bills have prompted a consumer backlash and a search for culprits. Some blame the Trump Administration’s energy policies while others point their fingers at grid operators and local utilities. For example, many older power plants have been retired while grid reliability has become a problem in some parts of the country. But the principal villain is alleged to be the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and the huge power demands required by the server farms that back up AI. Without question, AI and its components consume lots of electrons. Ten years ago, data centers required about 10 gigawatts of power. Last year, demand jumped to 40 gigawatts— consuming about 3% of America’s power generation capacity. According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, data centers will constitute 40% of power demand growth through the end of the decade. But with sizable utility scale generation currently under construction, AI will only be drawing upon 5% of the nation’s power resources in 2030. Given AI’s relatively small share of power demand today and in the future, the argument these facilities are primarily responsible for rising electricity costs doesn’t hold up. A new study by Charles River Associates gives further credence to the argument AI is not the principal driver of higher power costs. In fact, the CRA study found that in 34 states, residential electricity rates have actually grown more slowly than the overall cost-of-living since 2020. Large rate increases have been concentrated in the Northeast, due to wholesale market price increases, and in California due to wildfire-related costs. The only states where data center demand was found to have significantly pushed up power prices were located in the PJM

regional interconnect, a transmission grid that covers a vast region spanning from the Mid-Atlantic to the Midwest. In his recent State of the Union address, President Donald Trump announced that most major tech companies had agreed to sign a “ratepayer protection pledge” under which future data centers would have to supply their own power needs, primarily through on-site generation. This initiative should be especially beneficial to residential ratepayers in the PJM service area; but a broader re-examination of the PJM markets model is also needed to help bring down electricity prices. In short, the prevailing narrative that AI is driving up electricity costs is largely inaccurate. Instead of railing against tech companies, politicians and regulators should focus their attention on accelerating transmission build out, hardening the grid, facilitating the permitting of new base-load power plants, and expanding natural gas pipelines. Additionally, since electricity prices have risen in PJM more than other parts of the country, state and federal officials need to rethink the efficacy of PJM’s market model and whether this framework is conducive to meeting future power demands, especially for AI investments. These steps can help ensure electricity remains affordable and reliable in the years ahead.

Bernard L. Weinstein is emeritus professor of applied economics at the University of North Texas, retired associate director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University, and a fellow of Goodenough College, London.

Reprint from: https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2026/03/06/ dont_blame_ai_for_rising_electric_bills_1169067.html

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 10

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EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

RATE READINESS AT RISK The Global Shortage of Large Hydraulic

Forging Presses By Mesh Feigenbaum

T he aerospace industry is accelerating toward the highest single-aisle production rates in history. Boeing, Airbus, and COMAC are all pushing toward monthly outputs that would have been unthinkable a decade ago - 170 aircraft per month or more – 60% higher than the previous high. Engines, structures, landing gear, and critical titanium components must all scale with these ambitions. Yet beneath this surge lies the quiet constraint that people are just now starting to talk about: the world is running out of large hydraulic closed-die forging press capacity. For this analysis, “large hydraulic forging press” refers to presses of 200 meganewtons (MN) and above - roughly 20,000 metric tons and up. These presses are the backbone of commercial single-aisle and twin-aisle structural, engine, and landing gear forgings, as well as critical components for military aircraft. They produce: This is not a theoretical concern. It is a physical, metallurgical, geopolitical, and economic bottleneck - one that will define the aerospace production landscape for the next few decades. And the stakes are enormous. Boeing remains one of the most economically consequential manufacturers in the United States and supports hundreds of thousands of American jobs across its supply chain. A forging capacity shortage inherently limits commercial aerospace production rates - and therefore Boeing’s sales, revenue, and economic contribution. In a constrained capacity environment, normal market forces increase cost pressure and shift negotiating leverage as suppliers allocate limited forging slots to the highest value and most strategically aligned programs. These dynamics apply globally as well, affecting Airbus and COMAC as they pursue their own rate ambitions. From a national security perspective, the implications are even more serious. The U.S. defense industrial base depends on domestic and friendly nation forging suppliers. Russia and China are not options. A shortage of large press capacity directly threatens the timely delivery of critical military hardware, including programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Air Force’s F-47 and B-21, as well as the Navy’s F/A-XX. • Bulkheads and frames • Wingbox components • Slat tracks • Pylon structures • Landing gear beams, arms, and links • Engine hubs, shafts, and discs

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 12

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

A Gaping Hole in U.S. Forging Capability: 200– 299MN Hydraulic Presses The 200–299MN hydraulic press class is the optimal size for the majority of aluminum and titanium structural forgings used on single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. This class offers the right combination of: • Energy efficiency • Faster cycle times • Lower operating cost compared to oversized presses Many forgings require larger presses, but for those that can be produced on a 200–299MN machine, using a smaller, more efficient asset is the ideal choice. Yet the United States has only one press in this class - and it does not currently produce structural aerospace parts. This forces U.S. suppliers to run parts on oversized 300MN+ presses, which are: • Tonnage • Die size

The Global Capacity Imbalance - Russia and China Dominate A deeper analysis of the world’s forging infrastructure reveals a more sobering picture than raw tonnage counts suggest. When adjusted for age, condition, and technology level, Russia and China account for: • 44–49% of total global capacity • 64–74% of available capacity This is not a marginal dependency - it is a structural one. Our assessment of “available capacity” is based on knowledge of each of the 34 large hydraulic presses worldwide, including: • Approximate or actual year of manufacture • Original press manufacturer • Technology level and modernization history • Types of forgings produced • Observations from industry experts who have seen or worked on these presses • Known maintenance practices and workforce capability Geopolitical access is fragile. Russia is currently largely offline inaccessible for Western OEMs, cutting off Boeing from suppliers such as VSMPO. China is increasingly hedged due to geopolitical risk. Many OEMs and Tier 1s, having recently implemented painful risk mitigation strategies for Russia, are hedging their exposure to similar vulnerabilities with China. In a scenario where both Russia and China are unavailable, available global capacity collapses to just 5% of the 2018 baseline.

• Less efficient • More costly • Needed for the largest, most complex forgings

This mismatch reduces global effective capacity and increases cost across the supply chain. It also forces OEMs to rely more heavily on foreign suppliers - an option that is often unacceptable for defense applications, where foreign sourcing is restricted or prohibited.

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 13

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

The Capacity Outlook - Why 2018 Is the Last “Normal” Baseline The industry’s last stable year was 2018. COVID disruptions and the 737 MAX grounding created a deep multi-year dip in single-aisle production, which temporarily masked the forging bottleneck. During this period (2019 – 2025): • Forgers operated at low utilization • Profitability collapsed • Maintenance was deferred • Modernization stalled • Skilled workers were laid off • Cash for investment evaporated Now, as OEMs push toward unprecedented rates, the forging base is weaker than at any point in the last 20 years. The Unavoidable Shortage Window (2029–2033) Even the most optimistic scenarios presented three years ago

projected a forging capacity shortage beginning around 2029. Updated analysis now shows that a shortage between 2029 and 2032 is effectively unavoidable, driven by the multi-year timelines required to design, build, install, and qualify new capacity. Each new medium-sized facility, would add approximately 7.5% to global capacity. Avoiding the shortage would require at least 3-5 new medium size forging facilities. None are currently under construction. A “super facility” or dual coast U.S. forging center of excellence, similar to the one we have developed previously, could address a much larger share of the gap, but such an effort would require U.S. government support. OEM rate ambitions are not aspirational -¬ they reflect real global demand for commercial aircraft and rising demand for defense applications. Without sufficient forging capacity, these rates cannot be achieved. There is no remaining time to build and qualify the 3–5 new mid-sized forging facilities required to avoid the near term gap - though the industry must still move urgently to shorten the depth and duration of the shortfall.

FIA MAGAZINE | MAY 2026 14

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

The Fragility of the Existing Press Fleet - One Failure Can Break the System Even if global forging capacity were perfectly aligned with demand - and it is not - the industry faces a deeper structural vulnerability: the entire aerospace ecosystem depends on a small number of aging, heavily stressed hydraulic presses operating without major interruption. Most of the world’s large hydraulic presses were built during the Cold War. Many are now 40-60 years old, and despite their criticality, they have not received the level of refurbishment, modernization, or component upgrades that today’s utilization rates require. As OEMs push toward unprecedented production levels, these presses are and will be run harder and more continuously than at any point in their history. The risk is not theoretical. It is documented, recurring, and severe. In August 2008, the then Alcoa-owned 50,000-ton press - one of the most important forging assets in the Western world - suffered a major failure. The repair effort required roughly $100 million, and the press did not return to full operation until early 2012. For nearly four years, the aerospace industry lost access to a single, irreplaceable asset - and the consequences rippled across programs, schedules, and supply chains. This example is not an anomaly; it is a warning. Press failures are real, they are serious, and they carry multi-year consequences. Even less catastrophic events - such as a broken tie rod, column, or cylinder - routinely take 18-¬24 months to repair. These are well known failure modes of aging equipment operating at high duty cycles. Modern tie rod technologies, upgraded hydraulic systems, and planned refurbishment programs can dramatically reduce the likelihood of these failures, but only if suppliers invest before utilization peaks. The last several years have also taken a toll on the press fleet. During the COVID downturn and the extended 737 MAX grounding, utilization collapsed across the forging industry. With revenue under pressure and volumes at historic lows, many suppliers were forced to defer maintenance, delay modernization, and stretch the life of aging components. As rates now rise sharply, those deferred actions intersect with higher duty cycles - increasing the probability of failure precisely when the system has the least redundancy. If a major press goes down during the coming rate ramp, the consequences would be immediate and severe: • Delays in engine, landing gear, and structural component production • Forced slowdowns or pauses in aircraft deliveries • Cascading schedule impacts across multiple OEM and Tier 1 programs • Significant cost escalation as suppliers scramble for alternatives • Direct readiness risks for defense programs With so few large hydraulic presses worldwide - there is no meaningful redundancy at high rates. The loss of even one major press would push the industry from “tight capacity” into “systemic crisis.” The path forward is clear: planned maintenance, modernization, and component upgrades must occur before rates surge. Proactive investment is not optional; it is the only way to prevent avoidable failures from becoming industry wide emergencies.

The False Promise of Impact Device Qualification As hydraulic press capacity tightens, some OEMs are attempting to qualify complex Ti-5-5-5-3 forgings on mechanical and screw presses. This is driven by: • Lack of available hydraulic press capacity • Willingness of impact device forgers to try • OEM pressure to secure future supply • Limited internal expertise in forging process physics • Supplier commercial teams over promising before technical teams fully engage But Ti-5-5-5-3 is fundamentally incompatible with high strain rate processes. Hydraulic presses provide the most robust, repeatable, and defect resistant forging environment for both Ti-5-5-5-3 and Ti-10-2-3 across all part geometries. Mechanical and screw presses are much less suitable for Ti-5-5-5 3,… increasing the likelihood of flow instability, adiabatic shear banding, and forging induced cracking. Hydraulic presses, by virtue of their ability to vary forging speed and pressure over the course of the forging stroke, operate in a different metallurgical regime than mechanical and screw presses. Any geometry with multiple features of varying widths and thicknesses becomes particularly challenging for Ti-5-5-5-3. These variations require different strain rate profiles during forging - something only a hydraulic press can accomplish. Hydraulic presses with automated strain rate control are particularly well suited for these more demanding applications. OEMs are now burning scarce qualification resources on processes that have a high probability of failure - not due to supplier incompetence, but due to physics. Worse, these attempts create a false sense of future capacity that will not materialize when rate readiness peaks. Why Alternatives Will Not Offset Forging Demand Additive manufacturing, friction stir welding, and thick plate machining continue to advance and will expand their use in small or non critical components. However, for the foreseeable future, none of these processes can replace large hydraulic press forgings for primary aerospace structure or engine critical hardware. Forgings provide performance attributes that are fundamental to thermomechanical deformation, including: • High structural efficiency in weight critical applications • Consistent, certifiable material behavior across large sections These characteristics cannot be replicated by layer wise deposition, weld based consolidation, or subtractive machining of thick plate. Even if emerging processes demonstrated equivalent baseline properties, they would still face a multi-year qualification and redesign cycle: • Each alloy and temper requires material specific qualification • Each geometry requires part specific qualification • Structural components must undergo full fatigue, fracture, and damage tolerance substantiation • Directional grain flow aligned with load paths • Superior fatigue and fracture performance

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EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

• Any transition to a new process requires component redesign and subcomponent requalification This represents a 10–15- year pathway before any large structural component could transition away from forging — assuming the technology were mature today. From a rate readiness perspective, alternatives cannot meaningfully offset hydraulic press demand within any realistic planning horizon. The forging bottleneck must be addressed directly. The Investment Reality - Why New Capacity Is So Hard to Build A new ~approximately 30,000 ton hydraulic forging facility requires roughly $400 million in total investment. But it is essential to understand that this investment is not simply the cost of adding another press. A large hydraulic press does not create meaningful new capacity unless it is supported by an entire ecosystem of equipment, infrastructure, and process capability. Many existing forging facilities are not truly press limited today. Their bottlenecks lie in upstream and downstream operations - furnace throughput, manipulator availability, heat treat capacity, material handling, and thermal control. Dropping a new press into an under equipped facility would add only a fraction of the theoretical capacity, because the rest of the system cannot support the required flow. To create real new capacity, a new facility must include: • A preforming open die press sized for the target materials and geometries • An array of high capacity furnaces with tight thermal uniformity • Multiple automated manipulators capable of handling large titanium and nickel forgings • Heat treat systems matched to the alloys and part families

• Integrated conveyance and material flow design • Advanced controls and digital process monitoring • A layout optimized specifically for the target forgings and strain rate requirements Only when these systems are designed together - as a coordinated, purpose built line - does the industry gain true incremental capacity. The cost structure reflects this complexity and includes:

• Press and supporting equipment • Facility design and construction

• Expert consultants • Process development • Airframe and engine qualifications • Product specific qualifications • Financing costs that accumulate for years

The investment profile is heavily front loaded. Large outlays occur early for design, specification, equipment down payments, land acquisition, and construction. Nearly all construction and equipment spending is complete before qualification even begins. From the start of qualification, it takes at least two years to produce meaningful saleable product and three to five years to reach significant revenue. Unlike rolled plate mills - where qualifying one alloy/temper combination unlocks massive volume - forgings require material, temper, and geometry specific qualification. This dramatically extends the payback period and depresses IRR. While Howmet (Alcoa) replaced its 50,000- ton press in 2012 and Weber Metals installed a new 60,000- ton press in 2018 – both state-of-the art presses - the U.S. has not built a new large hydraulic forging facility in decades, and the scale, complexity, and capital intensity explain why.

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Modernization is also not just about presses. It often requires: • New furnaces

new operators and metallurgists up to proficiency. And because this expertise takes many years to rebuild, the industry is facing a structural capability gap that will compound the equipment based capacity shortage. What Must Be Done - A Call to Action To avoid a structural supply chain crisis, the industry must:

• Automated manipulators • Modern heat treat systems • Advanced controls

• Digital process monitoring • Automated strain rate control In short, a press is not a capacity solution — a system is. Strategic Implications - A National Industrial Base at Risk The U.S. forging base has many aging, under invested, and capacity constrained assets. Airbus retains access to Russian forgings; Boeing does not. China continues to invest aggressively in forging infrastructure - capacity that naturally supports COMAC and AVIC but increasingly Airbus as well. Boeing seems to be taking a more careful approach to placing forging business in China with a keen eye on geopolitical risk mitigation. Defense primes depend on domestic forging capability for critical titanium components. Without intervention, the U.S. risks: • Production delays • Higher costs • Loss of competitiveness • National security exposure Workforce Knowledge Has Eroded - and Continues to Erode Forging at the scale of 200MN and above is not a skill taught in universities, trade schools, or standard apprenticeship programs. It is a craft learned over decades, passed down through operators, metallurgists, and maintenance specialists who developed deep, facility specific expertise - often described as “local knowledge” or, informally, “black magic.” Every major press has its own personality, its own quirks, and its own unwritten rules. That knowledge lives in people, not manuals. Over the past decade, that knowledge base has been steadily eroding. The workforce is aging, and many of the most experienced practitioners have already retired, been laid off, or are nearing retirement. The generation now stepping into these roles is capable, motivated, and essential to the future of the industry - but they simply did not have the full opportunity to absorb the decades of tacit, press specific knowledge held by those who left. The economic shocks of 2019–2024 accelerated this gap: many forging companies lost key employees before meaningful knowledge transfer could occur, only realizing afterward how foundational those individuals were to the stability of their core processes. The consequences are now visible across the industry. Even historically strong suppliers are struggling to complete qualifications they would have executed reliably a decade ago. Extended development cycles, inconsistent results, and unexpected process variation often trace back to the same root cause: the loss of institutional knowledge that once stabilized these operations. This erosion is not theoretical. It shows up in schedule slips, scrap rates, qualification failures, and the growing difficulty of bringing

• Align OEM rate ambitions with forging realities • Prioritize modernization of existing U.S. presses • Co invest in new forging capacity • Allocate qualification resources strategically • Rebuild the forging workforce

• Treat hydraulic press capability as a national security asset Large investments often require partnerships between suppliers and OEMs, where the OEM provides qualification support and long term volume commitments. But OEMs typically contract supply for five year periods or more, and if a new supplier fails to qualify on time, the OEM may be left dangerously exposed. Public private partnerships have precedent. The U.S. Air Force invested in the Alcoa and Wyman Gordon large presses in the 1950s. A modern partnership could involve an OEM, a current supplier, an expert technical team, and the U.S. government - with firm benefits for each, including guaranteed capacity and long term favorable pricing and lead times. This is not industrial policy for its own sake. It is industrial policy for rate readiness, economic competitiveness, and national security. Closing - The Industry Is Running Toward a Cliff The aerospace industry is racing toward historic production rates. But unless we recognize the limits of our forging infrastructure, we risk discovering too late that the system cannot support the load. Rate readiness depends not just on assembly lines and suppliers, but on the massive hydraulic presses that anchor the entire aerospace ecosystem. The strategic imperatives are clear: Protect the global press fleet through disciplined planned maintenance, refurbishment, and modernization - while simultaneously accelerating development of the additional capacity the industry will ultimately require. Mesh Feigenbaum is a Senior Aerospace Executive with global experience. Mesh grew up in technology, holding several engineering, engineering leadership and R&D positions before transitioning to business development, strategy and executive leadership roles. This strong grounding in technology has been a cornerstone of his ability to thoroughly understand and strategize for complex businesses. Mesh is a proven, growth-oriented, globally focused leader with international experience who has found his passion in building world-class teams and organizations via a blend

of organic and inorganic opportunities. https://www.engineeredaerometals.com/

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SEEING THE HEAT Why Robots, Machine Vision, Smarter Controls, and AI are Gaining Ground in One of Manufacturing’s Toughest Environments By Angela Gibian

theatrical. It looks like robots taking over the hottest and dirtiest material-handling tasks. It looks like vision systems helping locate and orient billets. It looks like better controls making aging equipment more consistent and safer to run. And increasingly, it looks like 3D sensing and AI helping manufacturers make better decisions in an environment long defined by variation. The timing is not accidental. Industrial robot adoption continues to climb worldwide: the International Federation of Robotics reported that the global operational stock of industrial robots reached 4,281,585 units in 2023, up 10% year over year. At the same time, labor pressure remains intense across U.S. manufacturing. Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute project a net need for as many as 3.8 million manufacturing workers between 2024 and 2033, with about 1.9 million of those jobs potentially going unfilled if workforce and skills challenges persist 1,3 . In that environment, automation has become less of a moonshot and more of a survival tool. Start Where the Pain Is One of the clearest entry points for automation in forging is also one of the least glamorous: billet handling. Manually unloading billets from bins and preparing them for furnace loading is repetitive, physically demanding work. It involves awkward reaches, repetitive motion, and constant exposure to a harsh operating environment. It is also exactly the kind of task many plants struggle to staff consistently. That is one reason billet handling has become such a logical starting point. Mario Trizzano of Adaptec Solutions puts the safety case bluntly: “Manual unloading of bins can lead to a very high injury rate with pinched fingers. We’ve worked with forgers that note this position as being the highest rate of injury across the entire plant.” There is often a productivity case as well. “Robots are much faster and more consistent than operators, resulting in up to 30% uptick in productivity,” Trizzano says. Other industry suppliers point to the same area as a common first automation target, though from a slightly different perspective. BiLLy Paris, Director of Sales, Aftermarket & Rebuilds for Ajax/ CECO/Erie Press said “Handling cold steel billets is typically the simplest function to automate because billets are uniform in size and shape, easier to detect, and easier to move reliably on conventional conveying systems. In many shops, automation is already well established through the heating stage, especially around induction systems, where a stable process depends on a consistent supply of billets at a steady line speed.”

F orging has never been an easy place to automate. Heat, scale, dust, vibration, inconsistent part presentation, and punishing cycle times make the forge shop one of the hardest environments in manufacturing for advanced automation. For years, that reality kept many essential jobs stubbornly manual: unloading billets, feeding furnaces, transferring hot parts, tending trim presses, and visually inspecting parts in difficult conditions. That is changing. Not all at once, and not in some dramatic leap to lights-out production. The shift happening in forging is more practical than

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