May 2026 Volume 8

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

A Gaping Hole in U.S. Forging Capability: 200– 299MN Hydraulic Presses The 200–299MN hydraulic press class is the optimal size for the majority of aluminum and titanium structural forgings used on single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. This class offers the right combination of: • Energy efficiency • Faster cycle times • Lower operating cost compared to oversized presses Many forgings require larger presses, but for those that can be produced on a 200–299MN machine, using a smaller, more efficient asset is the ideal choice. Yet the United States has only one press in this class - and it does not currently produce structural aerospace parts. This forces U.S. suppliers to run parts on oversized 300MN+ presses, which are: • Tonnage • Die size

The Global Capacity Imbalance - Russia and China Dominate A deeper analysis of the world’s forging infrastructure reveals a more sobering picture than raw tonnage counts suggest. When adjusted for age, condition, and technology level, Russia and China account for: • 44–49% of total global capacity • 64–74% of available capacity This is not a marginal dependency - it is a structural one. Our assessment of “available capacity” is based on knowledge of each of the 34 large hydraulic presses worldwide, including: • Approximate or actual year of manufacture • Original press manufacturer • Technology level and modernization history • Types of forgings produced • Observations from industry experts who have seen or worked on these presses • Known maintenance practices and workforce capability Geopolitical access is fragile. Russia is currently largely offline inaccessible for Western OEMs, cutting off Boeing from suppliers such as VSMPO. China is increasingly hedged due to geopolitical risk. Many OEMs and Tier 1s, having recently implemented painful risk mitigation strategies for Russia, are hedging their exposure to similar vulnerabilities with China. In a scenario where both Russia and China are unavailable, available global capacity collapses to just 5% of the 2018 baseline.

• Less efficient • More costly • Needed for the largest, most complex forgings

This mismatch reduces global effective capacity and increases cost across the supply chain. It also forces OEMs to rely more heavily on foreign suppliers - an option that is often unacceptable for defense applications, where foreign sourcing is restricted or prohibited.

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