May 2026 Volume 8

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

The Capacity Outlook - Why 2018 Is the Last “Normal” Baseline The industry’s last stable year was 2018. COVID disruptions and the 737 MAX grounding created a deep multi-year dip in single-aisle production, which temporarily masked the forging bottleneck. During this period (2019 – 2025): • Forgers operated at low utilization • Profitability collapsed • Maintenance was deferred • Modernization stalled • Skilled workers were laid off • Cash for investment evaporated Now, as OEMs push toward unprecedented rates, the forging base is weaker than at any point in the last 20 years. The Unavoidable Shortage Window (2029–2033) Even the most optimistic scenarios presented three years ago

projected a forging capacity shortage beginning around 2029. Updated analysis now shows that a shortage between 2029 and 2032 is effectively unavoidable, driven by the multi-year timelines required to design, build, install, and qualify new capacity. Each new medium-sized facility, would add approximately 7.5% to global capacity. Avoiding the shortage would require at least 3-5 new medium size forging facilities. None are currently under construction. A “super facility” or dual coast U.S. forging center of excellence, similar to the one we have developed previously, could address a much larger share of the gap, but such an effort would require U.S. government support. OEM rate ambitions are not aspirational -¬ they reflect real global demand for commercial aircraft and rising demand for defense applications. Without sufficient forging capacity, these rates cannot be achieved. There is no remaining time to build and qualify the 3–5 new mid-sized forging facilities required to avoid the near term gap - though the industry must still move urgently to shorten the depth and duration of the shortfall.

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