May 2026 Volume 8

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

The Fragility of the Existing Press Fleet - One Failure Can Break the System Even if global forging capacity were perfectly aligned with demand - and it is not - the industry faces a deeper structural vulnerability: the entire aerospace ecosystem depends on a small number of aging, heavily stressed hydraulic presses operating without major interruption. Most of the world’s large hydraulic presses were built during the Cold War. Many are now 40-60 years old, and despite their criticality, they have not received the level of refurbishment, modernization, or component upgrades that today’s utilization rates require. As OEMs push toward unprecedented production levels, these presses are and will be run harder and more continuously than at any point in their history. The risk is not theoretical. It is documented, recurring, and severe. In August 2008, the then Alcoa-owned 50,000-ton press - one of the most important forging assets in the Western world - suffered a major failure. The repair effort required roughly $100 million, and the press did not return to full operation until early 2012. For nearly four years, the aerospace industry lost access to a single, irreplaceable asset - and the consequences rippled across programs, schedules, and supply chains. This example is not an anomaly; it is a warning. Press failures are real, they are serious, and they carry multi-year consequences. Even less catastrophic events - such as a broken tie rod, column, or cylinder - routinely take 18-¬24 months to repair. These are well known failure modes of aging equipment operating at high duty cycles. Modern tie rod technologies, upgraded hydraulic systems, and planned refurbishment programs can dramatically reduce the likelihood of these failures, but only if suppliers invest before utilization peaks. The last several years have also taken a toll on the press fleet. During the COVID downturn and the extended 737 MAX grounding, utilization collapsed across the forging industry. With revenue under pressure and volumes at historic lows, many suppliers were forced to defer maintenance, delay modernization, and stretch the life of aging components. As rates now rise sharply, those deferred actions intersect with higher duty cycles - increasing the probability of failure precisely when the system has the least redundancy. If a major press goes down during the coming rate ramp, the consequences would be immediate and severe: • Delays in engine, landing gear, and structural component production • Forced slowdowns or pauses in aircraft deliveries • Cascading schedule impacts across multiple OEM and Tier 1 programs • Significant cost escalation as suppliers scramble for alternatives • Direct readiness risks for defense programs With so few large hydraulic presses worldwide - there is no meaningful redundancy at high rates. The loss of even one major press would push the industry from “tight capacity” into “systemic crisis.” The path forward is clear: planned maintenance, modernization, and component upgrades must occur before rates surge. Proactive investment is not optional; it is the only way to prevent avoidable failures from becoming industry wide emergencies.

The False Promise of Impact Device Qualification As hydraulic press capacity tightens, some OEMs are attempting to qualify complex Ti-5-5-5-3 forgings on mechanical and screw presses. This is driven by: • Lack of available hydraulic press capacity • Willingness of impact device forgers to try • OEM pressure to secure future supply • Limited internal expertise in forging process physics • Supplier commercial teams over promising before technical teams fully engage But Ti-5-5-5-3 is fundamentally incompatible with high strain rate processes. Hydraulic presses provide the most robust, repeatable, and defect resistant forging environment for both Ti-5-5-5-3 and Ti-10-2-3 across all part geometries. Mechanical and screw presses are much less suitable for Ti-5-5-5 3,… increasing the likelihood of flow instability, adiabatic shear banding, and forging induced cracking. Hydraulic presses, by virtue of their ability to vary forging speed and pressure over the course of the forging stroke, operate in a different metallurgical regime than mechanical and screw presses. Any geometry with multiple features of varying widths and thicknesses becomes particularly challenging for Ti-5-5-5-3. These variations require different strain rate profiles during forging - something only a hydraulic press can accomplish. Hydraulic presses with automated strain rate control are particularly well suited for these more demanding applications. OEMs are now burning scarce qualification resources on processes that have a high probability of failure - not due to supplier incompetence, but due to physics. Worse, these attempts create a false sense of future capacity that will not materialize when rate readiness peaks. Why Alternatives Will Not Offset Forging Demand Additive manufacturing, friction stir welding, and thick plate machining continue to advance and will expand their use in small or non critical components. However, for the foreseeable future, none of these processes can replace large hydraulic press forgings for primary aerospace structure or engine critical hardware. Forgings provide performance attributes that are fundamental to thermomechanical deformation, including: • High structural efficiency in weight critical applications • Consistent, certifiable material behavior across large sections These characteristics cannot be replicated by layer wise deposition, weld based consolidation, or subtractive machining of thick plate. Even if emerging processes demonstrated equivalent baseline properties, they would still face a multi-year qualification and redesign cycle: • Each alloy and temper requires material specific qualification • Each geometry requires part specific qualification • Structural components must undergo full fatigue, fracture, and damage tolerance substantiation • Directional grain flow aligned with load paths • Superior fatigue and fracture performance

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