May 2026 Volume 8

EQUIPMENT & TECHNOLOGY

• Any transition to a new process requires component redesign and subcomponent requalification This represents a 10–15- year pathway before any large structural component could transition away from forging — assuming the technology were mature today. From a rate readiness perspective, alternatives cannot meaningfully offset hydraulic press demand within any realistic planning horizon. The forging bottleneck must be addressed directly. The Investment Reality - Why New Capacity Is So Hard to Build A new ~approximately 30,000 ton hydraulic forging facility requires roughly $400 million in total investment. But it is essential to understand that this investment is not simply the cost of adding another press. A large hydraulic press does not create meaningful new capacity unless it is supported by an entire ecosystem of equipment, infrastructure, and process capability. Many existing forging facilities are not truly press limited today. Their bottlenecks lie in upstream and downstream operations - furnace throughput, manipulator availability, heat treat capacity, material handling, and thermal control. Dropping a new press into an under equipped facility would add only a fraction of the theoretical capacity, because the rest of the system cannot support the required flow. To create real new capacity, a new facility must include: • A preforming open die press sized for the target materials and geometries • An array of high capacity furnaces with tight thermal uniformity • Multiple automated manipulators capable of handling large titanium and nickel forgings • Heat treat systems matched to the alloys and part families

• Integrated conveyance and material flow design • Advanced controls and digital process monitoring • A layout optimized specifically for the target forgings and strain rate requirements Only when these systems are designed together - as a coordinated, purpose built line - does the industry gain true incremental capacity. The cost structure reflects this complexity and includes:

• Press and supporting equipment • Facility design and construction

• Expert consultants • Process development • Airframe and engine qualifications • Product specific qualifications • Financing costs that accumulate for years

The investment profile is heavily front loaded. Large outlays occur early for design, specification, equipment down payments, land acquisition, and construction. Nearly all construction and equipment spending is complete before qualification even begins. From the start of qualification, it takes at least two years to produce meaningful saleable product and three to five years to reach significant revenue. Unlike rolled plate mills - where qualifying one alloy/temper combination unlocks massive volume - forgings require material, temper, and geometry specific qualification. This dramatically extends the payback period and depresses IRR. While Howmet (Alcoa) replaced its 50,000- ton press in 2012 and Weber Metals installed a new 60,000- ton press in 2018 – both state-of-the art presses - the U.S. has not built a new large hydraulic forging facility in decades, and the scale, complexity, and capital intensity explain why.

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